Simulation scenario 10

Setting description

Equal randomization: several treatments more effective in distinctive signatures (cfr scen 7)

Simulations setting

PFS distributions

Treatment effects

By subgroup:

subtype	var	Other	Hormone_therapies	Taxel_therapies	Carboplatin	Niraparib
—-	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.043, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 22.6, median = 16.3	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 2.58, hr = 0.37	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43
—+	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.043, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.039, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 22.6, median = 16.3	mean = 25, median = 18	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 2.58, hr = 0.37	af = 2.85, hr = 0.33	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43
–+-	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43
–++	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.039, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 25, median = 18	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 2.85, hr = 0.33	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43
-+–	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.043, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 22.6, median = 16.3	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 2.58, hr = 0.37	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31
-+-+	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.043, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.039, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 22.6, median = 16.3	mean = 25, median = 18	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 2.58, hr = 0.37	af = 2.85, hr = 0.33	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31
-++-	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31
-+++	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.039, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 25, median = 18	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 2.85, hr = 0.33	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31
+—	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43
+–+	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.039, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 25, median = 18	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 2.85, hr = 0.33	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43
+-+-	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43
+-++	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.039, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 25, median = 18	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 2.85, hr = 0.33	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43
++–	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31
++-+	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.039, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 25, median = 18	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 2.85, hr = 0.33	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31
+++-	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31
++++	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.039, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 25, median = 18	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 2.85, hr = 0.33	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31

By signature:

signature	var	Other	Hormone_therapies	Taxel_therapies	Carboplatin	Niraparib
all	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.129, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.099, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.098, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.098, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 7.6, median = 5.5	mean = 9.9, median = 7.1	mean = 10, median = 7.2	mean = 10, median = 7.2
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.87, hr = 1.16	af = 1.13, hr = 0.88	af = 1.14, hr = 0.87	af = 1.14, hr = 0.87
TP53- & AR-	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.043, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.099, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.098, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.098, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 22.6, median = 16.3	mean = 9.9, median = 7.1	mean = 10, median = 7.2	mean = 10, median = 7.2
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 2.58, hr = 0.37	af = 1.13, hr = 0.88	af = 1.14, hr = 0.87	af = 1.14, hr = 0.87
TP53+	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.157, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.099, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.098, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.098, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 6.3, median = 4.5	mean = 9.9, median = 7.1	mean = 10, median = 7.2	mean = 10, median = 7.2
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.71, hr = 1.43	af = 1.13, hr = 0.88	af = 1.14, hr = 0.87	af = 1.14, hr = 0.87
DRD+	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.129, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.099, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 7.6, median = 5.5	mean = 9.9, median = 7.1	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.87, hr = 1.16	af = 1.13, hr = 0.88	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31
TEfus+	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.129, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.039, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.098, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.098, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 7.6, median = 5.5	mean = 25, median = 18	mean = 10, median = 7.2	mean = 10, median = 7.2
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.87, hr = 1.16	af = 2.85, hr = 0.33	af = 1.14, hr = 0.87	af = 1.14, hr = 0.87

Errors and power

graduation (counts and proportions):

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Carboplatin Niraparib all 3 3 0 1 TP53- & AR- 272 5 2 2 TP53+ 1 12 3 4 DRD+ 0 3 166 159 TEfus+ 1 167 1 3

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Carboplatin Niraparib all 0.006 0.006 0.000 0.002 TP53- & AR- 0.544 0.010 0.004 0.004 TP53+ 0.002 0.024 0.006 0.008 DRD+ 0.000 0.006 0.332 0.318 TEfus+ 0.002 0.334 0.002 0.006

futility (counts and proportions):

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Carboplatin Niraparib all 1 0 0 0 TP53- & AR- 0 105 122 110 TP53+ 254 0 3 3 DRD+ 75 7 0 0 TEfus+ 93 0 6 11

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Carboplatin Niraparib all 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 TP53- & AR- 0.000 0.210 0.244 0.220 TP53+ 0.508 0.000 0.006 0.006 DRD+ 0.150 0.014 0.000 0.000 TEfus+ 0.186 0.000 0.012 0.022

max sample size (counts and proportions):

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Carboplatin Niraparib all 0 0 0 0 TP53- & AR- 8 11 14 17 TP53+ 1 9 14 13 DRD+ 0 0 0 0 TEfus+ 0 1 0 2

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Carboplatin Niraparib all 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 TP53- & AR- 0.016 0.022 0.028 0.034 TP53+ 0.002 0.018 0.028 0.026 DRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 TEfus+ 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.004

Errors & power

The overall error was 0.048.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies       Carboplatin         Niraparib 
            0.008             0.026             0.006             0.008 

The overall power was 0.858.
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies       Carboplatin         Niraparib 
            0.544             0.334             0.332             0.318 

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:

signature	var	Control	Hormone_therapies	Taxel_therapies	Carboplatin	Niraparib
all	graduation	0	3	3	0	1
	futility	0	1	0	0	0
	max_n	0	0	0	0	0
	n	276 (244, 311)	186 (121, 253)	236 (177, 287)	248 (180, 292)	244 (182, 292)
	n_unique	252 (226, 284)	167 (106, 230)	216 (160, 262)	225 (164, 266)	221 (165, 268)
	time_trial	36 (36, 36)	36 (36, 36)	36 (36, 36)	36 (36, 36)	36 (36, 36)
	time_stop	NA (NA, NA)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 5)	NA (NA, NA)	5 (5, 5)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.47 (0.02, 0.98)	0.53 (0.06, 0.94)	0.24 (0.01, 0.71)	0.23 (0.01, 0.71)
	rate	0.093 (0.084, 0.102)	0.092 (0.075, 0.115)	0.092 (0.079, 0.109)	0.1 (0.09, 0.115)	0.101 (0.09, 0.114)
TP53- & AR-	graduation	0	272	5	2	2
	futility	0	0	105	122	110
	max_n	0	8	11	14	17
	n	115 (96, 143)	73 (26, 116)	100 (32, 131)	100 (30, 130)	100 (31, 129)
	n_unique	106 (88, 133)	68 (24, 106)	92 (29, 120)	92 (28, 117)	91 (28, 118)
	time_trial	36 (36, 36)	29 (9, 36)	36 (13, 36)	36 (12, 36)	36 (12, 36)
	time_stop	NA (NA, NA)	12 (9, 28)	13 (9, 23)	13 (9, 23)	13 (9, 21)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	1 (0.93, 1)	0.02 (0, 0.2)	0.02 (0, 0.24)	0.02 (0, 0.2)
	rate	0.073 (0.062, 0.085)	0.042 (0.034, 0.051)	0.109 (0.09, 0.134)	0.106 (0.088, 0.128)	0.105 (0.09, 0.13)
TP53+	graduation	0	1	12	3	4
	futility	0	254	0	3	3
	max_n	0	1	9	14	13
	n	119 (103, 138)	89 (33, 119)	108 (78, 133)	114 (90, 137)	113 (91, 136)
	n_unique	108 (93, 127)	81 (30, 108)	97 (72, 120)	104 (82, 124)	102 (82, 124)
	time_trial	36 (36, 36)	35 (12, 36)	36 (36, 36)	36 (36, 36)	36 (36, 36)
	time_stop	NA (NA, NA)	18 (10, 32)	11 (8, 16)	12 (10, 18)	11 (9, 14)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.02 (0, 0.13)	0.96 (0.63, 1)	0.7 (0.22, 0.97)	0.69 (0.22, 0.97)
	rate	0.112 (0.098, 0.129)	0.162 (0.138, 0.194)	0.084 (0.069, 0.105)	0.103 (0.088, 0.12)	0.103 (0.088, 0.123)
DRD+	graduation	0	0	3	166	159
	futility	0	75	7	0	0
	max_n	0	0	0	0	0
	n	82 (67, 99)	52 (31, 77)	68 (45, 93)	67 (28, 90)	67 (30, 89)
	n_unique	76 (61, 92)	46 (27, 71)	60 (40, 83)	60 (25, 81)	61 (27, 80)
	time_trial	36 (36, 36)	36 (22, 36)	36 (36, 36)	36 (16, 36)	36 (16, 36)
	time_stop	NA (NA, NA)	20 (14, 32)	17 (13, 33)	20 (12, 32)	20 (13, 32)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.15 (0.01, 0.64)	0.52 (0.12, 0.92)	1 (0.99, 1)	1 (0.99, 1)
	rate	0.089 (0.074, 0.107)	0.099 (0.076, 0.135)	0.079 (0.061, 0.1)	0.036 (0.027, 0.044)	0.035 (0.027, 0.044)
TEfus+	graduation	0	1	167	1	3
	futility	0	93	0	6	11
	max_n	0	0	1	0	2
	n	105 (87, 124)	70 (36, 101)	86 (28, 114)	94 (69, 119)	91 (69, 118)
	n_unique	96 (80, 114)	63 (32, 89)	77 (25, 101)	85 (63, 107)	83 (62, 107)
	time_trial	36 (36, 36)	36 (22, 36)	36 (12, 36)	36 (36, 36)	36 (36, 36)
	time_stop	NA (NA, NA)	22 (11, 35)	15 (10, 31)	13 (12, 26)	16 (9, 24)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.02 (0, 0.23)	1 (0.98, 1)	0.16 (0.01, 0.55)	0.17 (0.02, 0.55)
	rate	0.074 (0.063, 0.086)	0.11 (0.086, 0.139)	0.038 (0.03, 0.046)	0.09 (0.073, 0.109)	0.088 (0.073, 0.107)

By subgroup combinations:

subtype	var	Control	Hormone_therapies	Taxel_therapies	Carboplatin	Niraparib
—-	graduation	0	276	113	124	113
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	8	11	14	17
	n	70 (55, 88)	47 (16, 72)	62 (22, 83)	62 (19, 81)	63 (20, 81)
	n_unique	64 (50, 84)	44 (15, 68)	58 (21, 78)	58 (18, 76)	59 (19, 75)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	1 (0.96, 1)	0 (0, 0.06)	0 (0, 0.06)	0 (0, 0.05)
	rate	0.083 (0.067, 0.101)	0.043 (0.032, 0.056)	0.158 (0.132, 0.193)	0.158 (0.132, 0.193)	0.161 (0.135, 0.191)
—+	graduation	0	343	256	128	122
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	8	12	14	17
	n	15 (10, 22)	7 (2, 17)	10 (2, 18)	14 (4, 20)	13 (4, 21)
	n_unique	14 (9, 20)	6 (2, 15)	9 (2, 17)	12 (3, 18)	12 (4, 19)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.75 (0.41, 0.96)	0.83 (0.43, 0.97)	0.04 (0, 0.23)	0.05 (0, 0.25)
	rate	0.051 (0.03, 0.081)	0.044 (0.021, 0.08)	0.038 (0.02, 0.075)	0.161 (0.109, 0.266)	0.159 (0.105, 0.261)
–+-	graduation	0	259	15	6	8
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	1	9	14	13
	n	38 (29, 46)	29 (10, 41)	37 (28, 46)	37 (28, 46)	38 (28, 47)
	n_unique	34 (26, 43)	27 (10, 37)	34 (25, 42)	34 (26, 43)	34 (26, 43)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.4 (0.09, 0.78)	0.38 (0.07, 0.79)	0.4 (0.07, 0.82)	0.37 (0.07, 0.8)
	rate	0.146 (0.115, 0.181)	0.163 (0.127, 0.224)	0.161 (0.129, 0.202)	0.159 (0.128, 0.206)	0.163 (0.128, 0.206)
–++	graduation	0	305	177	12	22
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	1	10	14	14
	n	26 (19, 34)	18 (7, 30)	22 (8, 31)	27 (19, 35)	26 (18, 34)
	n_unique	24 (17, 32)	16 (6, 27)	20 (7, 28)	24 (17, 33)	24 (17, 31)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.08 (0.01, 0.32)	0.99 (0.9, 1)	0.05 (0, 0.27)	0.06 (0, 0.27)
	rate	0.085 (0.059, 0.122)	0.161 (0.12, 0.23)	0.039 (0.022, 0.055)	0.156 (0.121, 0.201)	0.158 (0.119, 0.206)
-+–	graduation	0	328	122	252	249
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	8	11	11	17
	n	15 (9, 21)	7 (2, 17)	13 (4, 20)	10 (3, 18)	10 (3, 19)
	n_unique	14 (8, 20)	6 (2, 15)	12 (4, 18)	9 (3, 16)	10 (3, 17)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.77 (0.43, 0.93)	0.05 (0, 0.26)	0.86 (0.51, 0.98)	0.85 (0.53, 0.98)
	rate	0.08 (0.053, 0.125)	0.043 (0.021, 0.081)	0.162 (0.104, 0.228)	0.035 (0.018, 0.069)	0.037 (0.02, 0.067)
-+-+	graduation	0	376	262	255	255
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	8	12	11	17
	n	16 (10, 23)	6 (2, 18)	10 (3, 20)	10 (3, 21)	11 (3, 20)
	n_unique	15 (9, 21)	5 (2, 15)	9 (2, 18)	9 (3, 18)	10 (3, 18)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.55 (0.25, 0.81)	0.58 (0.26, 0.88)	0.63 (0.28, 0.88)	0.63 (0.3, 0.88)
	rate	0.053 (0.032, 0.079)	0.042 (0.018, 0.079)	0.039 (0.018, 0.069)	0.037 (0.018, 0.066)	0.036 (0.018, 0.064)
-++-	graduation	0	294	25	170	164
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	1	9	14	11
	n	8 (4, 12)	5 (2, 11)	8 (4, 13)	7 (3, 11)	7 (3, 12)
	n_unique	7 (4, 11)	5 (1, 10)	7 (3, 11)	6 (2, 11)	6 (2, 11)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.28 (0.09, 0.55)	0.25 (0.04, 0.53)	0.93 (0.69, 0.99)	0.92 (0.69, 0.99)
	rate	0.151 (0.087, 0.267)	0.168 (0.101, 0.36)	0.167 (0.094, 0.283)	0.034 (0.013, 0.07)	0.035 (0.015, 0.071)
-+++	graduation	0	329	184	175	175
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	1	10	14	12
	n	9 (5, 13)	5 (1, 10)	7 (2, 12)	7 (3, 12)	7 (2, 12)
	n_unique	8 (5, 13)	4 (1, 9)	6 (2, 11)	6 (2, 11)	6 (2, 11)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.16 (0.03, 0.38)	0.73 (0.46, 0.93)	0.76 (0.46, 0.93)	0.76 (0.45, 0.94)
	rate	0.087 (0.044, 0.158)	0.164 (0.097, 0.378)	0.038 (0.015, 0.077)	0.034 (0.013, 0.072)	0.035 (0.013, 0.078)
+—	graduation	0	4	3	0	1
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	0	0	0	0
	n	12 (7, 17)	12 (7, 16)	12 (8, 17)	12 (8, 17)	12 (8, 17)
	n_unique	11 (6, 15)	10 (6, 15)	11 (7, 16)	11 (7, 15)	11 (7, 16)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.42 (0.12, 0.81)	0.47 (0.12, 0.84)	0.47 (0.14, 0.82)	0.46 (0.12, 0.8)
	rate	0.145 (0.093, 0.222)	0.166 (0.112, 0.257)	0.16 (0.106, 0.254)	0.155 (0.104, 0.24)	0.161 (0.11, 0.252)
+–+	graduation	0	98	170	7	15
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	0	1	0	2
	n	10 (6, 15)	9 (4, 15)	8 (3, 14)	10 (6, 15)	10 (6, 14)
	n_unique	9 (6, 14)	8 (4, 13)	7 (2, 12)	9 (5, 14)	9 (5, 13)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.21 (0.04, 0.53)	0.94 (0.67, 1)	0.2 (0.03, 0.51)	0.2 (0.04, 0.52)
	rate	0.087 (0.048, 0.153)	0.166 (0.102, 0.278)	0.038 (0.017, 0.076)	0.163 (0.106, 0.255)	0.168 (0.107, 0.267)
+-+-	graduation	0	259	15	6	8
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	1	9	14	13
	n	10 (6, 15)	8 (2, 13)	10 (6, 14)	10 (6, 15)	10 (5, 14)
	n_unique	9 (5, 13)	6 (2, 11)	9 (5, 13)	9 (5, 13)	9 (5, 13)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.42 (0.17, 0.76)	0.48 (0.16, 0.81)	0.46 (0.15, 0.8)	0.47 (0.16, 0.81)
	rate	0.151 (0.095, 0.236)	0.175 (0.115, 0.34)	0.157 (0.104, 0.249)	0.16 (0.105, 0.268)	0.16 (0.107, 0.261)
+-++	graduation	0	305	177	12	22
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	1	10	14	14
	n	11 (7, 16)	7 (2, 12)	8 (3, 14)	11 (7, 16)	10 (6, 16)
	n_unique	10 (6, 14)	6 (2, 12)	7 (2, 13)	10 (6, 14)	9 (5, 14)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.24 (0.06, 0.5)	0.94 (0.66, 0.99)	0.19 (0.04, 0.49)	0.19 (0.04, 0.49)
	rate	0.087 (0.05, 0.152)	0.173 (0.107, 0.336)	0.039 (0.018, 0.078)	0.16 (0.109, 0.253)	0.164 (0.107, 0.262)
++–	graduation	0	79	13	166	160
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	0	0	0	0
	n	8 (5, 12)	7 (4, 12)	8 (4, 12)	6 (3, 11)	6 (3, 11)
	n_unique	7 (4, 11)	7 (3, 11)	7 (4, 11)	6 (2, 10)	6 (2, 10)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.24 (0.07, 0.5)	0.24 (0.07, 0.57)	0.92 (0.67, 0.99)	0.91 (0.69, 0.99)
	rate	0.152 (0.09, 0.261)	0.167 (0.1, 0.311)	0.158 (0.095, 0.293)	0.035 (0.013, 0.077)	0.036 (0.015, 0.073)
++-+	graduation	0	147	177	172	171
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	0	1	0	2
	n	8 (5, 13)	7 (3, 11)	7 (2, 12)	7 (2, 11)	7 (2, 12)
	n_unique	8 (4, 12)	6 (2, 10)	6 (2, 11)	6 (2, 10)	6 (2, 11)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.13 (0.02, 0.34)	0.76 (0.44, 0.93)	0.76 (0.48, 0.94)	0.78 (0.45, 0.94)
	rate	0.089 (0.044, 0.169)	0.166 (0.099, 0.304)	0.037 (0.017, 0.08)	0.035 (0.014, 0.069)	0.036 (0.014, 0.073)
+++-	graduation	0	294	25	170	164
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	1	9	14	11
	n	8 (5, 13)	5 (2, 10)	8 (4, 13)	7 (3, 11)	7 (3, 12)
	n_unique	8 (4, 12)	5 (1, 9)	7 (3, 11)	6 (2, 10)	6 (2, 11)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.27 (0.09, 0.53)	0.24 (0.06, 0.58)	0.92 (0.69, 0.99)	0.93 (0.72, 0.99)
	rate	0.153 (0.088, 0.265)	0.173 (0.101, 0.343)	0.159 (0.096, 0.268)	0.035 (0.015, 0.069)	0.034 (0.012, 0.069)
++++	graduation	0	329	184	175	175
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	1	10	14	12
	n	9 (5, 13)	5 (2, 10)	7 (2, 12)	7 (3, 13)	7 (3, 12)
	n_unique	8 (4, 12)	5 (1, 9)	6 (2, 11)	6 (2, 11)	6 (2, 11)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.17 (0.03, 0.36)	0.75 (0.44, 0.93)	0.78 (0.46, 0.95)	0.78 (0.46, 0.95)
	rate	0.094 (0.047, 0.181)	0.173 (0.093, 0.373)	0.04 (0.015, 0.078)	0.034 (0.013, 0.074)	0.034 (0.013, 0.069)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:

signature	var	Hormone_therapies	Taxel_therapies	Carboplatin	Niraparib
all	count	3	3		1
	time_stop	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 5)		5 (5, 5)
	n_trt	28 (26, 29)	27 (25, 32)		33 (33, 33)
	n_control	24 (22, 30)	24 (17, 35)		23 (23, 23)
	post_p	0.9 (0.86, 0.91)	0.97 (0.92, 0.97)		0.9 (0.9, 0.9)
	order	1 (1, 1)	1 (1, 1)		1 (1, 1)
TP53- & AR-	count	272	5	2	2
	time_stop	12 (9, 28)	11 (8, 12)	9 (8, 10)	12 (12, 13)
	n_trt	30 (25, 81)	28 (25, 34)	26 (25, 28)	38 (36, 40)
	n_control	33 (20, 81)	27 (25, 31)	22 (20, 24)	34 (32, 36)
	post_p	0.98 (0.91, 1)	0.88 (0.86, 0.9)	0.95 (0.95, 0.96)	0.91 (0.88, 0.93)
	order	1 (1, 2)	1 (1, 1.6)	1 (1, 1)	1.5 (1.1, 1.9)
TP53+	count	1	12	3	4
	time_stop	7 (7, 7)	11 (8, 16)	11 (9, 18)	12 (10, 14)
	n_trt	25 (25, 25)	32 (25, 52)	28 (26, 43)	34 (25, 43)
	n_control	17 (17, 17)	37 (19, 55)	30 (27, 56)	30 (22, 36)
	post_p	0.86 (0.86, 0.86)	0.98 (0.9, 0.99)	0.93 (0.91, 0.98)	0.94 (0.87, 0.98)
	order	1 (1, 1)	1 (1, 2)	1 (1, 1.8)	2 (1.3, 2)
DRD+	count		3	166	159
	time_stop		13 (11, 14)	20 (12, 32)	20 (13, 32)
	n_trt		25 (25, 27)	34 (25, 71)	38 (26, 73)
	n_control		18 (16, 24)	38 (23, 72)	39 (22, 74)
	post_p		0.92 (0.9, 0.96)	1 (0.96, 1)	1 (0.97, 1)
	order		2 (1.2, 2)	2 (1, 3)	2 (1, 3)
TEfus+	count	1	167	1	3
	time_stop	10 (10, 10)	15 (10, 31)	14 (14, 14)	9 (7, 12)
	n_trt	25 (25, 25)	34 (26, 85)	29 (29, 29)	25 (25, 33)
	n_control	19 (19, 19)	36 (22, 86)	41 (41, 41)	29 (20, 31)
	post_p	0.97 (0.97, 0.97)	0.99 (0.96, 1)	0.99 (0.99, 0.99)	0.94 (0.88, 0.96)
	order	1 (1, 1)	1 (1, 3)	2 (2, 2)	1 (1, 1)

Futility:

signature	var	Hormone_therapies	Taxel_therapies	Carboplatin	Niraparib
all	count	1
	time_stop	4 (4, 4)
	n_trt	30 (30, 30)
	n_control	22 (22, 22)
	post_p	0.14 (0.14, 0.14)
	order	1 (1, 1)
TP53- & AR-	count		105	122	110
	time_stop		14 (9, 24)	13 (9, 23)	13 (9, 21)
	n_trt		36 (26, 70)	32 (26, 67)	32 (25, 61)
	n_control		37 (23, 71)	34 (21, 73)	32 (20, 59)
	post_p		0.04 (0, 0.17)	0.07 (0.01, 0.24)	0.06 (0.01, 0.24)
	order		1 (1, 2)	1 (1, 2)	1 (1, 2)
TP53+	count	254		3	3
	time_stop	18 (10, 32)		13 (12, 15)	11 (9, 13)
	n_trt	56 (28, 99)		39 (39, 41)	38 (29, 39)
	n_control	54 (25, 99)		43 (39, 47)	31 (29, 33)
	post_p	0.02 (0, 0.13)		0.03 (0.03, 0.11)	0.06 (0.06, 0.24)
	order	1 (1, 3)		2 (1.2, 2)	1 (1, 1.8)
DRD+	count	75	7
	time_stop	20 (14, 32)	18 (16, 33)
	n_trt	33 (26, 51)	33 (30, 84)
	n_control	40 (23, 62)	35 (26, 73)
	post_p	0.03 (0, 0.13)	0.07 (0.03, 0.13)
	order	2 (1, 3)	2 (1, 3)
TEfus+	count	93		6	11
	time_stop	22 (11, 35)		12 (12, 28)	19 (10, 25)
	n_trt	47 (26, 83)		34 (29, 77)	39 (25, 54)
	n_control	54 (24, 102)		33 (26, 75)	45 (23, 72)
	post_p	0.01 (0, 0.06)		0.02 (0, 0.09)	0.04 (0.02, 0.09)
	order	2 (1, 3.8)		3 (1.5, 3)	2 (1, 4)

By subgroup combinations

Graduation:

signature	treatment	var	—-	—+	–+-	–++	-+–	-+-+	-++-	-+++	+—	+–+	+-+-	+-++	++–	++-+	+++-	++++
all	Hormone_therapies	count	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
		time	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)
		n	8 (6, 10)	1 (0, 1)	4 (3, 5)	3 (2, 3)	1 (0, 1)	4 (2, 5)	0 (0, 2)	0 (0, 2)	1 (0, 3)	1 (1, 3)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 1)	1 (0, 2)	1 (0, 3)	1 (1, 1)	0 (0, 1)
		post_p	0.73 (0.68, 0.74)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.67 (0.6, 0.73)	0.6 (0.57, 0.66)	0.57 (0.54, 0.59)	0.52 (0.52, 0.52)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.58 (0.58, 0.58)	0.52 (0.52, 0.52)	NA (NA, NA)	NA (NA, NA)	NA (NA, NA)	0.61 (0.61, 0.61)	0.64 (0.64, 0.64)	0.56 (0.56, 0.56)	NA (NA, NA)
		r_prob	0.44 (0.44, 0.44)	0.35 (0.35, 0.35)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.18 (0.18, 0.18)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0.18 (0.18, 0.18)	0.18 (0.18, 0.18)	0.12 (0.12, 0.12)	0.12 (0.12, 0.12)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0 (0, 0.073)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0.059 (0.012, 0.106)	0 (0, 0)	NA (NA, NA)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0.051 (0.01, 0.092)	0 (0, 1.248)	0.291 (0.291, 0.291)
	Taxel_therapies	count	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
		time	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)
		n	9 (7, 11)	2 (0, 2)	2 (1, 4)	3 (3, 4)	2 (2, 3)	0 (0, 2)	0 (0, 0)	1 (0, 1)	2 (0, 3)	1 (0, 2)	2 (1, 3)	1 (0, 3)	0 (0, 1)	0 (0, 3)	0 (0, 1)	0 (0, 1)
		post_p	0.65 (0.62, 0.71)	0.56 (0.56, 0.56)	0.63 (0.6, 0.65)	0.68 (0.68, 0.7)	0.56 (0.54, 0.59)	0.6 (0.6, 0.6)	NA (NA, NA)	0.53 (0.53, 0.53)	0.8 (0.76, 0.84)	0.61 (0.61, 0.61)	0.67 (0.63, 0.73)	0.55 (0.55, 0.55)	0.55 (0.55, 0.55)	0.69 (0.69, 0.69)	0.51 (0.51, 0.51)	0.57 (0.57, 0.57)
		r_prob	0.11 (0.11, 0.11)	0.29 (0.29, 0.29)	0.17 (0.17, 0.17)	0.41 (0.41, 0.41)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0.41 (0.41, 0.41)	0.41 (0.41, 0.41)	0.37 (0.37, 0.37)	0.37 (0.37, 0.37)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.075 (0.049, 0.099)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	NA (NA, NA)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
	Niraparib	count	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
		time	5 (5, 5)	5 (5, 5)	5 (5, 5)	5 (5, 5)	5 (5, 5)	5 (5, 5)	5 (5, 5)	5 (5, 5)	5 (5, 5)	5 (5, 5)	5 (5, 5)	5 (5, 5)	5 (5, 5)	5 (5, 5)	5 (5, 5)	5 (5, 5)
		n	8 (8, 8)	1 (1, 1)	4 (4, 4)	2 (2, 2)	2 (2, 2)	2 (2, 2)	2 (2, 2)	2 (2, 2)	2 (2, 2)	1 (1, 1)	1 (1, 1)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	2 (2, 2)	2 (2, 2)	2 (2, 2)
		post_p	0.67 (0.67, 0.67)	0.68 (0.68, 0.68)	0.57 (0.57, 0.57)	0.58 (0.58, 0.58)	0.55 (0.55, 0.55)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.52 (0.52, 0.52)	0.52 (0.52, 0.52)	0.6 (0.6, 0.6)	0.61 (0.61, 0.61)	0.6 (0.6, 0.6)	NA (NA, NA)	NA (NA, NA)	0.52 (0.52, 0.52)	0.53 (0.53, 0.53)	0.64 (0.64, 0.64)
		r_prob	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0.08 (0.08, 0.08)	0 (0, 0)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate	0.078 (0.078, 0.078)	0 (0, 0)	0.085 (0.085, 0.085)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	NA (NA, NA)	NA (NA, NA)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
TP53- & AR-	Hormone_therapies	count	272	272			272	272
		time	12 (9, 28)	12 (9, 28)			12 (9, 28)	12 (9, 28)
		n	21 (15, 51)	4 (2, 10)			4 (2, 11)	4 (1, 11)
		post_p	0.96 (0.82, 1)	0.71 (0.54, 0.87)			0.71 (0.54, 0.86)	0.63 (0.52, 0.78)
		r_prob	0.44 (0.44, 0.44)	0.35 (0.35, 0.35)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.039 (0.017, 0.062)	0.027 (0, 0.076)			0.017 (0, 0.064)	0 (0, 0.053)
	Taxel_therapies	count	5	5			5	5
		time	11 (8, 12)	11 (8, 12)			11 (8, 12)	11 (8, 12)
		n	22 (17, 25)	4 (3, 6)			2 (0, 3)	1 (0, 4)
		post_p	0.76 (0.72, 0.8)	0.75 (0.68, 0.87)			0.57 (0.54, 0.66)	0.67 (0.57, 0.75)
		r_prob	0.11 (0.11, 0.11)	0.29 (0.29, 0.29)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.072 (0.059, 0.102)	0 (0, 0.072)			0 (0, 0.027)	0 (0, 0)
	Carboplatin	count	2	2			2	2
		time	9 (8, 10)	9 (8, 10)			9 (8, 10)	9 (8, 10)
		n	16 (15, 18)	2 (1, 4)			3 (3, 3)	4 (3, 6)
		post_p	0.81 (0.76, 0.86)	0.63 (0.57, 0.69)			0.61 (0.55, 0.67)	0.78 (0.78, 0.79)
		r_prob	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)			0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate	0.065 (0.04, 0.09)	0.024 (0.005, 0.043)			0.062 (0.012, 0.112)	0 (0, 0)
	Niraparib	count	2	2			2	2
		time	12 (12, 13)	12 (12, 13)			12 (12, 13)	12 (12, 13)
		n	26 (21, 30)	2 (1, 4)			5 (5, 5)	5 (4, 6)
		post_p	0.78 (0.77, 0.79)	0.54 (0.53, 0.55)			0.87 (0.82, 0.91)	0.72 (0.57, 0.87)
		r_prob	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)			0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate	0.092 (0.076, 0.108)	0.045 (0.009, 0.081)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
TP53+	Hormone_therapies	count			1	1			1	1			1	1			1	1
		time			7 (7, 7)	7 (7, 7)			7 (7, 7)	7 (7, 7)			7 (7, 7)	7 (7, 7)			7 (7, 7)	7 (7, 7)
		n			6 (6, 6)	6 (6, 6)			1 (1, 1)	1 (1, 1)			1 (1, 1)	1 (1, 1)			2 (2, 2)	7 (7, 7)
		post_p			0.87 (0.87, 0.87)	0.76 (0.76, 0.76)			0.53 (0.53, 0.53)	NA (NA, NA)			0.51 (0.51, 0.51)	NA (NA, NA)			NA (NA, NA)	NA (NA, NA)
		r_prob			0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.18 (0.18, 0.18)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)			0.12 (0.12, 0.12)	0.12 (0.12, 0.12)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate			0.08 (0.08, 0.08)	0 (0, 0)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)			0 (0, 0)	1.02 (1.02, 1.02)			0.167 (0.167, 0.167)	0.055 (0.055, 0.055)
	Taxel_therapies	count			12	12			12	12			12	12			12	12
		time			11 (8, 16)	11 (8, 16)			11 (8, 16)	11 (8, 16)			11 (8, 16)	11 (8, 16)			11 (8, 16)	11 (8, 16)
		n			10 (6, 18)	8 (5, 12)			2 (1, 3)	3 (1, 5)			3 (1, 4)	3 (1, 7)			2 (0, 3)	2 (0, 5)
		post_p			0.78 (0.71, 0.9)	0.83 (0.73, 0.93)			0.58 (0.51, 0.7)	0.68 (0.52, 0.76)			0.64 (0.55, 0.83)	0.72 (0.57, 0.85)			0.53 (0.5, 0.7)	0.54 (0.52, 0.59)
		r_prob			0.17 (0.17, 0.17)	0.41 (0.41, 0.41)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)			0.37 (0.37, 0.37)	0.37 (0.37, 0.37)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate			0.101 (0.08, 0.149)	0.034 (0, 0.057)			0.025 (0, 0.166)	0 (0, 0.073)			0.091 (0.046, 0.125)	0.01 (0, 0.068)			0 (0, 0.101)	0 (0, 0.068)
	Carboplatin	count			3	3			3	3			3	3			3	3
		time			11 (9, 18)	11 (9, 18)			11 (9, 18)	11 (9, 18)			11 (9, 18)	11 (9, 18)			11 (9, 18)	11 (9, 18)
		n			14 (7, 16)	4 (3, 5)			3 (2, 3)	1 (0, 6)			3 (2, 5)	1 (0, 3)			3 (1, 5)	5 (3, 5)
		post_p			0.85 (0.57, 0.88)	0.69 (0.62, 0.74)			0.7 (0.56, 0.72)	0.69 (0.6, 0.78)			0.61 (0.58, 0.64)	0.56 (0.55, 0.57)			0.68 (0.55, 0.86)	0.72 (0.68, 0.8)
		r_prob			0.08 (0.08, 0.08)	0 (0, 0)			0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)			0.06 (0.06, 0.06)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)			0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate			0.136 (0.123, 0.142)	0 (0, 0.066)			0 (0, 0.047)	0 (0, 0)			0.067 (0.013, 0.145)	0.035 (0.007, 0.063)			0 (0, 0.03)	0 (0, 0.016)
	Niraparib	count			4	4			4	4			4	4			4	4
		time			12 (10, 14)	12 (10, 14)			12 (10, 14)	12 (10, 14)			12 (10, 14)	12 (10, 14)			12 (10, 14)	12 (10, 14)
		n			12 (11, 14)	8 (5, 10)			2 (1, 4)	2 (1, 4)			2 (0, 4)	2 (2, 4)			2 (1, 3)	2 (1, 4)
		post_p			0.76 (0.74, 0.85)	0.72 (0.66, 0.73)			0.7 (0.56, 0.79)	0.57 (0.5, 0.68)			0.6 (0.52, 0.67)	0.68 (0.57, 0.77)			0.74 (0.58, 0.86)	0.56 (0.53, 0.68)
		r_prob			0.08 (0.08, 0.08)	0 (0, 0)			0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)			0.06 (0.06, 0.06)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)			0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate			0.105 (0.078, 0.131)	0.08 (0.057, 0.126)			0.029 (0, 0.06)	0 (0, 0.025)			0.122 (0.076, 0.168)	0.056 (0.016, 0.065)			0 (0, 0)	0.027 (0.005, 0.033)
DRD+	Taxel_therapies	count					3	3	3	3					3	3	3	3
		time					13 (11, 14)	13 (11, 14)	13 (11, 14)	13 (11, 14)					13 (11, 14)	13 (11, 14)	13 (11, 14)	13 (11, 14)
		n					4 (4, 5)	5 (4, 5)	4 (2, 5)	4 (3, 6)					1 (0, 3)	3 (2, 4)	1 (0, 1)	3 (2, 5)
		post_p					0.54 (0.52, 0.55)	0.59 (0.55, 0.68)	0.61 (0.58, 0.67)	0.73 (0.65, 0.79)					0.64 (0.63, 0.64)	0.63 (0.57, 0.65)	0.56 (0.53, 0.58)	0.71 (0.67, 0.71)
		r_prob					0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)					0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate					0.075 (0.058, 0.077)	0 (0, 0.024)	0.044 (0.009, 0.106)	0.043 (0.009, 0.054)					0.029 (0.006, 0.053)	0 (0, 0.081)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0.044)
	Carboplatin	count					166	166	166	166					166	166	166	166
		time					20 (12, 32)	20 (12, 32)	20 (12, 32)	20 (12, 32)					20 (12, 32)	20 (12, 32)	20 (12, 32)	20 (12, 32)
		n					6 (3, 14)	5 (3, 15)	4 (2, 8)	4 (1, 9)					4 (1, 9)	4 (1, 8)	4 (2, 8)	4 (2, 8)
		post_p					0.76 (0.58, 0.93)	0.71 (0.53, 0.83)	0.78 (0.57, 0.96)	0.71 (0.53, 0.88)					0.79 (0.58, 0.96)	0.7 (0.56, 0.88)	0.78 (0.59, 0.96)	0.72 (0.53, 0.87)
		r_prob					0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)					0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate					0.028 (0, 0.061)	0.021 (0, 0.044)	0.025 (0, 0.066)	0.023 (0, 0.058)					0.025 (0, 0.068)	0.019 (0, 0.056)	0.034 (0, 0.076)	0.024 (0, 0.066)
	Niraparib	count					159	159	159	159					159	159	159	159
		time					20 (13, 32)	20 (13, 32)	20 (13, 32)	20 (13, 32)					20 (13, 32)	20 (13, 32)	20 (13, 32)	20 (13, 32)
		n					7 (3, 14)	7 (3, 16)	4 (1, 8)	4 (1, 9)					4 (2, 8)	4 (1, 8)	5 (1, 8)	4 (2, 8)
		post_p					0.76 (0.57, 0.93)	0.73 (0.53, 0.87)	0.78 (0.55, 0.96)	0.72 (0.53, 0.89)					0.77 (0.57, 0.94)	0.71 (0.54, 0.9)	0.8 (0.58, 0.96)	0.72 (0.53, 0.92)
		r_prob					0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)					0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate					0.029 (0, 0.057)	0.022 (0, 0.041)	0.03 (0, 0.068)	0.022 (0, 0.069)					0.031 (0, 0.076)	0.024 (0, 0.058)	0.029 (0, 0.064)	0.024 (0, 0.055)
TEfus+	Hormone_therapies	count		1		1		1		1		1		1		1		1
		time		10 (10, 10)		10 (10, 10)		10 (10, 10)		10 (10, 10)		10 (10, 10)		10 (10, 10)		10 (10, 10)		10 (10, 10)
		n		3 (3, 3)		5 (5, 5)		8 (8, 8)		1 (1, 1)		4 (4, 4)		4 (4, 4)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)
		post_p		0.69 (0.69, 0.69)		0.77 (0.77, 0.77)		0.74 (0.74, 0.74)		0.54 (0.54, 0.54)		0.89 (0.89, 0.89)		0.66 (0.66, 0.66)		NA (NA, NA)		NA (NA, NA)
		r_prob		0.35 (0.35, 0.35)		0.18 (0.18, 0.18)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)		0.18 (0.18, 0.18)		0.12 (0.12, 0.12)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)
		rate		0 (0, 0)		0.043 (0.043, 0.043)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)		0.078 (0.078, 0.078)		NA (NA, NA)		NA (NA, NA)
	Taxel_therapies	count		167		167		167		167		167		167		167		167
		time		15 (10, 31)		15 (10, 31)		15 (10, 31)		15 (10, 31)		15 (10, 31)		15 (10, 31)		15 (10, 31)		15 (10, 31)
		n		5 (2, 13)		10 (5, 22)		5 (2, 12)		3 (1, 9)		4 (1, 9)		4 (2, 10)		3 (1, 7)		3 (1, 8)
		post_p		0.75 (0.57, 0.9)		0.9 (0.73, 0.99)		0.69 (0.53, 0.83)		0.67 (0.52, 0.86)		0.78 (0.6, 0.97)		0.77 (0.57, 0.97)		0.66 (0.53, 0.83)		0.68 (0.52, 0.88)
		r_prob		0.29 (0.29, 0.29)		0.41 (0.41, 0.41)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)		0.41 (0.41, 0.41)		0.37 (0.37, 0.37)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)
		rate		0.026 (0, 0.061)		0.037 (0, 0.069)		0.013 (0, 0.042)		0.008 (0, 0.064)		0.025 (0, 0.08)		0.028 (0, 0.076)		0.017 (0, 0.061)		0.019 (0, 0.063)
	Carboplatin	count		1		1		1		1		1		1		1		1
		time		14 (14, 14)		14 (14, 14)		14 (14, 14)		14 (14, 14)		14 (14, 14)		14 (14, 14)		14 (14, 14)		14 (14, 14)
		n		3 (3, 3)		5 (5, 5)		5 (5, 5)		3 (3, 3)		5 (5, 5)		1 (1, 1)		3 (3, 3)		4 (4, 4)
		post_p		0.73 (0.73, 0.73)		0.65 (0.65, 0.65)		0.78 (0.78, 0.78)		0.66 (0.66, 0.66)		0.51 (0.51, 0.51)		0.69 (0.69, 0.69)		0.89 (0.89, 0.89)		0.75 (0.75, 0.75)
		r_prob		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)		0 (0, 0)		0.06 (0.06, 0.06)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate		0 (0, 0)		0.053 (0.053, 0.053)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)		0.158 (0.158, 0.158)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)
	Niraparib	count		3		3		3		3		3		3		3		3
		time		9 (7, 12)		9 (7, 12)		9 (7, 12)		9 (7, 12)		9 (7, 12)		9 (7, 12)		9 (7, 12)		9 (7, 12)
		n		2 (1, 4)		11 (9, 13)		4 (3, 5)		2 (1, 3)		2 (1, 3)		3 (1, 4)		2 (2, 3)		2 (2, 3)
		post_p		0.52 (0.51, 0.56)		0.75 (0.72, 0.78)		0.7 (0.61, 0.75)		0.57 (0.56, 0.63)		0.6 (0.57, 0.68)		0.62 (0.53, 0.7)		0.54 (0.52, 0.83)		0.54 (0.53, 0.62)
		r_prob		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)		0 (0, 0)		0.06 (0.06, 0.06)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate		0 (0, 0.093)		0.082 (0.041, 0.107)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)		0.093 (0.019, 0.122)		0.031 (0.006, 0.055)		0 (0, 0.03)		0 (0, 0.069)

Futility:

signature	treatment	var	—-	—+	–+-	–++	-+–	-+-+	-++-	-+++	+—	+–+	+-+-	+-++	++–	++-+	+++-	++++
all	Hormone_therapies	count	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
		time	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)	4 (4, 4)
		n	6 (6, 6)	1 (1, 1)	2 (2, 2)	4 (4, 4)	0 (0, 0)	2 (2, 2)	1 (1, 1)	2 (2, 2)	3 (3, 3)	4 (4, 4)	1 (1, 1)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	2 (2, 2)	2 (2, 2)
		post_p	0.44 (0.44, 0.44)	0.46 (0.46, 0.46)	0.35 (0.35, 0.35)	NA (NA, NA)	NA (NA, NA)	0.25 (0.25, 0.25)	NA (NA, NA)	0.37 (0.37, 0.37)	NA (NA, NA)	NA (NA, NA)	0.28 (0.28, 0.28)	NA (NA, NA)	NA (NA, NA)	NA (NA, NA)	0.36 (0.36, 0.36)	NA (NA, NA)
		r_prob	0.44 (0.44, 0.44)	0.35 (0.35, 0.35)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.18 (0.18, 0.18)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0.18 (0.18, 0.18)	0.18 (0.18, 0.18)	0.12 (0.12, 0.12)	0.12 (0.12, 0.12)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.182 (0.182, 0.182)	0 (0, 0)	0.327 (0.327, 0.327)	0 (0, 0)	NA (NA, NA)	0.194 (0.194, 0.194)	0 (0, 0)	0.246 (0.246, 0.246)	0.348 (0.348, 0.348)	0 (0, 0)	3.745 (3.745, 3.745)	NA (NA, NA)	NA (NA, NA)	NA (NA, NA)	0.274 (0.274, 0.274)	0.489 (0.489, 0.489)
TP53- & AR-	Taxel_therapies	count	105	105			105	105
		time	14 (9, 24)	14 (9, 24)			14 (9, 24)	14 (9, 24)
		n	24 (15, 42)	4 (1, 8)			5 (2, 10)	5 (2, 10)
		post_p	0.09 (0, 0.33)	0.45 (0.34, 0.49)			0.25 (0.05, 0.44)	0.4 (0.24, 0.48)
		r_prob	0.11 (0.11, 0.11)	0.29 (0.29, 0.29)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.156 (0.123, 0.224)	0.095 (0.045, 0.213)			0.155 (0.085, 0.315)	0.058 (0.03, 0.146)
	Carboplatin	count	122	122			122	122
		time	13 (9, 23)	13 (9, 23)			13 (9, 23)	13 (9, 23)
		n	22 (15, 43)	4 (2, 10)			4 (2, 9)	5 (2, 9)
		post_p	0.13 (0.01, 0.36)	0.28 (0.06, 0.46)			0.45 (0.34, 0.49)	0.4 (0.23, 0.49)
		r_prob	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)			0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate	0.161 (0.121, 0.212)	0.164 (0.071, 0.384)			0.083 (0.042, 0.195)	0.06 (0.026, 0.147)
	Niraparib	count	110	110			110	110
		time	13 (9, 21)	13 (9, 21)			13 (9, 21)	13 (9, 21)
		n	21 (15, 38)	5 (2, 9)			4 (1, 9)	4 (2, 9)
		post_p	0.16 (0.02, 0.43)	0.26 (0.05, 0.45)			0.42 (0.26, 0.49)	0.4 (0.25, 0.49)
		r_prob	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)			0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate	0.152 (0.116, 0.208)	0.167 (0.087, 0.396)			0.082 (0.047, 0.182)	0.063 (0.022, 0.207)
TP53+	Hormone_therapies	count			254	254			254	254			254	254			254	254
		time			18 (10, 32)	18 (10, 32)			18 (10, 32)	18 (10, 32)			18 (10, 32)	18 (10, 32)			18 (10, 32)	18 (10, 32)
		n			18 (8, 35)	11 (6, 23)			4 (1, 8)	4 (1, 8)			5 (1, 10)	5 (2, 10)			4 (1, 8)	4 (1, 8)
		post_p			0.34 (0.1, 0.48)	0.19 (0.03, 0.42)			0.33 (0.12, 0.48)	0.24 (0.08, 0.45)			0.37 (0.19, 0.48)	0.33 (0.12, 0.47)			0.27 (0.09, 0.46)	0.25 (0.07, 0.43)
		r_prob			0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.18 (0.18, 0.18)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)			0.12 (0.12, 0.12)	0.12 (0.12, 0.12)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate			0.178 (0.14, 0.263)	0.163 (0.113, 0.266)			0.174 (0.101, 0.434)	0.165 (0.076, 0.466)			0.201 (0.138, 0.443)	0.175 (0.098, 0.376)			0.19 (0.097, 0.467)	0.178 (0.086, 0.435)
	Carboplatin	count			3	3			3	3			3	3			3	3
		time			13 (12, 15)	13 (12, 15)			13 (12, 15)	13 (12, 15)			13 (12, 15)	13 (12, 15)			13 (12, 15)	13 (12, 15)
		n			13 (12, 22)	5 (4, 11)			0 (0, 2)	2 (2, 4)			4 (2, 6)	4 (4, 6)			1 (0, 1)	3 (1, 5)
		post_p			0.28 (0.1, 0.28)	0.2 (0.11, 0.23)			0.46 (0.46, 0.46)	0.48 (0.35, 0.49)			0.39 (0.16, 0.39)	0.25 (0.19, 0.31)			0.44 (0.39, 0.49)	0.47 (0.46, 0.47)
		r_prob			0.08 (0.08, 0.08)	0 (0, 0)			0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)			0.06 (0.06, 0.06)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)			0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate			0.168 (0.155, 0.328)	0.192 (0.158, 0.232)			0.13 (0.13, 0.13)	0.027 (0.005, 0.072)			0.374 (0.246, 0.516)	0.221 (0.183, 0.316)			0.082 (0.016, 0.147)	0.049 (0.01, 0.058)
	Niraparib	count			3	3			3	3			3	3			3	3
		time			11 (9, 13)	11 (9, 13)			11 (9, 13)	11 (9, 13)			11 (9, 13)	11 (9, 13)			11 (9, 13)	11 (9, 13)
		n			10 (9, 15)	10 (8, 12)			2 (0, 3)	3 (2, 4)			2 (2, 3)	3 (1, 5)			1 (0, 1)	3 (1, 4)
		post_p			0.4 (0.19, 0.45)	0.21 (0.11, 0.32)			0.44 (0.4, 0.48)	0.28 (0.25, 0.4)			0.37 (0.36, 0.39)	0.41 (0.34, 0.44)			0.48 (0.46, 0.49)	0.42 (0.42, 0.43)
		r_prob			0.08 (0.08, 0.08)	0 (0, 0)			0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)			0.06 (0.06, 0.06)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)			0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate			0.199 (0.159, 0.262)	0.188 (0.18, 0.214)			0.077 (0.049, 0.104)	0.178 (0.134, 0.245)			0.164 (0.144, 0.268)	0.125 (0.124, 0.336)			0.11 (0.022, 0.198)	0.085 (0.078, 0.093)
DRD+	Hormone_therapies	count					75	75	75	75					75	75	75	75
		time					20 (14, 32)	20 (14, 32)	20 (14, 32)	20 (14, 32)					20 (14, 32)	20 (14, 32)	20 (14, 32)	20 (14, 32)
		n					5 (2, 10)	5 (2, 12)	4 (2, 7)	4 (1, 7)					4 (1, 8)	4 (1, 9)	4 (1, 7)	3 (1, 8)
		post_p					0.4 (0.21, 0.49)	0.37 (0.18, 0.48)	0.3 (0.15, 0.47)	0.21 (0.07, 0.36)					0.29 (0.13, 0.48)	0.27 (0.08, 0.45)	0.3 (0.09, 0.44)	0.25 (0.07, 0.45)
		r_prob					0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)					0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate					0.086 (0.056, 0.146)	0.057 (0.036, 0.117)	0.2 (0.114, 0.413)	0.173 (0.093, 0.72)					0.183 (0.113, 0.393)	0.147 (0.081, 0.38)	0.199 (0.087, 0.406)	0.182 (0.078, 0.45)
	Taxel_therapies	count					7	7	7	7					7	7	7	7
		time					18 (16, 33)	18 (16, 33)	18 (16, 33)	18 (16, 33)					18 (16, 33)	18 (16, 33)	18 (16, 33)	18 (16, 33)
		n					6 (5, 17)	8 (7, 17)	2 (1, 9)	5 (2, 10)					5 (4, 10)	3 (0, 6)	6 (4, 8)	4 (1, 8)
		post_p					0.17 (0.05, 0.38)	0.38 (0.28, 0.42)	0.29 (0.18, 0.4)	0.39 (0.22, 0.47)					0.15 (0.09, 0.27)	0.34 (0.25, 0.36)	0.39 (0.26, 0.47)	0.36 (0.2, 0.44)
		r_prob					0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)					0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate					0.118 (0.069, 0.204)	0.049 (0.045, 0.083)	0.191 (0.161, 1.214)	0.078 (0.058, 0.323)					0.194 (0.153, 0.424)	0.125 (0.062, 1.455)	0.131 (0.116, 0.18)	0.105 (0.04, 0.159)
TEfus+	Hormone_therapies	count		93		93		93		93		93		93		93		93
		time		22 (11, 35)		22 (11, 35)		22 (11, 35)		22 (11, 35)		22 (11, 35)		22 (11, 35)		22 (11, 35)		22 (11, 35)
		n		5 (2, 12)		12 (6, 24)		5 (2, 12)		4 (1, 9)		6 (3, 10)		5 (2, 10)		4 (2, 9)		4 (2, 9)
		post_p		0.42 (0.29, 0.49)		0.21 (0.04, 0.39)		0.39 (0.18, 0.49)		0.24 (0.07, 0.4)		0.29 (0.08, 0.47)		0.3 (0.09, 0.44)		0.24 (0.07, 0.45)		0.23 (0.06, 0.43)
		r_prob		0.35 (0.35, 0.35)		0.18 (0.18, 0.18)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)		0.18 (0.18, 0.18)		0.12 (0.12, 0.12)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)
		rate		0.086 (0.055, 0.154)		0.163 (0.117, 0.238)		0.06 (0.032, 0.129)		0.168 (0.08, 0.43)		0.181 (0.104, 0.445)		0.185 (0.1, 0.398)		0.167 (0.073, 0.412)		0.146 (0.079, 0.489)
	Carboplatin	count		6		6		6		6		6		6		6		6
		time		12 (12, 28)		12 (12, 28)		12 (12, 28)		12 (12, 28)		12 (12, 28)		12 (12, 28)		12 (12, 28)		12 (12, 28)
		n		5 (4, 11)		7 (5, 21)		5 (4, 12)		4 (2, 5)		6 (2, 10)		6 (2, 10)		2 (0, 8)		2 (1, 4)
		post_p		0.22 (0.1, 0.36)		0.26 (0.06, 0.39)		0.36 (0.21, 0.46)		0.38 (0.3, 0.42)		0.27 (0.1, 0.43)		0.25 (0.12, 0.31)		0.36 (0.18, 0.41)		0.45 (0.24, 0.48)
		r_prob		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)		0 (0, 0)		0.06 (0.06, 0.06)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate		0.19 (0.119, 0.566)		0.167 (0.147, 0.291)		0.056 (0.039, 0.078)		0.071 (0.038, 0.087)		0.21 (0.17, 0.334)		0.182 (0.153, 0.517)		0.143 (0.076, 0.537)		0.067 (0.025, 0.332)
	Niraparib	count		11		11		11		11		11		11		11		11
		time		19 (10, 25)		19 (10, 25)		19 (10, 25)		19 (10, 25)		19 (10, 25)		19 (10, 25)		19 (10, 25)		19 (10, 25)
		n		5 (2, 7)		12 (7, 21)		5 (0, 9)		2 (0, 4)		6 (4, 10)		4 (3, 5)		2 (0, 7)		2 (1, 8)
		post_p		0.25 (0.05, 0.4)		0.21 (0.11, 0.43)		0.39 (0.24, 0.48)		0.41 (0.28, 0.5)		0.32 (0.24, 0.42)		0.34 (0.24, 0.45)		0.46 (0.44, 0.49)		0.35 (0.27, 0.45)
		r_prob		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)		0 (0, 0)		0.06 (0.06, 0.06)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate		0.189 (0.127, 0.526)		0.171 (0.113, 0.262)		0.067 (0.027, 0.084)		0.103 (0.042, 0.24)		0.18 (0.134, 0.397)		0.179 (0.115, 0.328)		0.071 (0.029, 0.918)		0.111 (0.077, 0.239)